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Biopharma Outlook 2035

300+ industry leaders and experts expect the industry to grow despite U.S. pricing pressure, geopolitical risk and tighter biotech funding. Their expectations point one way. Their plans point another.
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Biopharma expects familiar growth as the paths to get there narrow

Sustaining both growth and innovation in the next decade will require leaders to navigate a more complex environment for funding, developing and commercializing new medicines. To understand how they are preparing, the ZS Impact Institute surveyed more than 300 biopharma executives, investors, analysts and policy experts in September and October 2026.
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The outlook for growth

Sustaining growth would require increasing patient volumes to offset lower prices. Yet respondents also expect more selective launch strategies under MFN-style pricing.

The outlook for growth

The outlook for innovation

At the same time, leaders expect to lean harder on external innovation just as the sources of that innovation are becoming harder to access.

The outlook for innovation

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What this means for biopharma’s growth engine

Western biotech runs on a loop. Venture investors fund early-stage companies. Pharma acquires or licenses the winners. Investors then put those returns into the next generation of companies.

A ZS Impact Institute analysis indicates that a sustained shift in licensing spend toward China-origin assets could weaken that loop if aggregate investment budgets do not expand. So could the innovation system that supplies the assets pharma’s future growth depends on.

How to protect growth and innovation together

Growth and innovation now depend on each other. In the report’s modeled scenarios, offsetting lower U.S. prices would require more treatment volume and continued innovation. A move that strengthens one while weakening the other puts both at risk.

The actions below are grouped by when to act, from moves that pay off in any scenario to bolder shifts if price cuts run deep. Each covers two priorities: positioning for growth and securing access to innovation.

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Get the report

U.S. pricing pressure, geopolitical risk and tighter biotech funding are narrowing the paths to growth and innovation. See what 300+ leaders and experts expect by 2035.
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Meet our experts

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Stress test your next big decision

Plan through uncertainty by embedding pricing, access, policy and external risk scenarios into your portfolio, launch and operating decisions.
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About the research

The ZS Impact Institute conducted an online survey of 305 biopharma executives and external industry experts from September 15 to October 15, 2026. The sample includes 226 industry executives, nearly all at VP level or above, and 79 external experts, including policy specialists, industry analysts and biotech investors. Respondents are based in the U.S., Europe, China, Japan and other Asia-Pacific markets. The findings are also informed by 15 in-depth phone interviews with survey respondents, counted within the base of 305.

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Frequently asked questions

Short answers on what biopharma leaders expect for growth, pricing and innovation sourcing through 2035, drawn from ZS Impact Institute research.
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What does ZS Impact Institute’s Biopharma Outlook 2035 research say about the industry's growth and innovation outlook through 2035?
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The ZS Impact Institute surveyed 305 biopharma executives and external industry experts in September and October 2026. Most expect revenue to keep growing through 2035, even as U.S. price pressure persists. They also expect capital to shift toward later-stage assets and pipelines to rely more on licensing, increasingly from China. Taken together, these trends could reduce capital available for early-stage science if aggregate investment budgets do not expand.
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How do biopharma leaders expect U.S. drug pricing to affect growth through 2035?
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Biopharma leaders expect U.S. pricing pressure to persist but still anticipate growth. While 80% expect MFN-style pricing pressure to remain at least moderately significant through 2035, 89% expect real growth in branded revenue. Leaders expect increased patient volume to help offset lower prices, according to a September–October 2026 ZS Impact Institute survey.
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How will biopharma companies source innovation through 2035?
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Biopharma leaders expect external innovation to become more important. Respondents to a September–October 2026 ZS Impact Institute survey expect the externally sourced share of pipelines to increase from 60% today to 68% by 2035, even as biotech companies face a higher bar for raising capital.
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How important will China be to biopharma innovation by 2035?
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China is expected to become an increasingly important source of biopharma innovation. Fifty-seven percent of respondents to a September–October 2026 ZS Impact Institute survey expect China-origin innovation to be essential or dominant by 2035, although 48% expect policy and reimbursement risks to materially limit licensing of China-origin assets.
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